Рынок строительных материалов и домашней мебели BHI зафиксировал первое снижение по сравнению с предыдущим месяцем с 2017 года.

Qin Zhanxue, Executive Vice President of the China Building Materials Circulation Association, interpreted the current BHI (Building Materials and Home Furnishings Market Index) data from an expert's perspective, stating that in May, influenced by seasonal peak factors in the industry, sales in building materials and home furnishings stores nationwide with a certain scale maintained an upward trend, rising by 5.31% month-on-month. However, the BHI broke the upward trend seen since 2017, experiencing a slight month-on-month decline of 2.73 points. A detailed analysis is as follows:

Firstly, the performance of the BHI in May remained "relatively consistent" with the national real estate market. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to May, the sales area of commercial housing was 548.2 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, with the growth rate dropping by 1.4 percentage points compared to the period from January to April. The sales revenue of commercial housing reached 4,363.2 billion yuan, up by 18.6%, with the growth rate declining by 1.5 percentage points. In May, the Real Estate Development Climate Index (referred to as the "National Real Estate Climate Index") stood at 101.18, down by 0.05 points from April. It is evident that against the backdrop of continuous tightening of market regulation policies, the sales pace of the national real estate market has slowed down, with an accelerated trend of market differentiation. Sales in some hot cities have seen both month-on-month and year-on-year adjustments. The state of the real estate market directly impacts the building materials and home furnishings industry. Although major building materials and home furnishings markets continued the traditional approach of "peak-season promotions," the diverse promotional activities during the May Day holiday yielded minimal actual results. The BHI experienced its first month-on-month decline since 2017, and the year-on-year decline further widened.

Secondly, from the perspective of the BHI sub-indices, the combination of the traditional peak season for renovations and promotional activities indeed had a positive impact on the "Popularity Index," which rose by 22.93 points month-on-month. However, the corresponding "Purchasing Power Index" fell by 23.04 points month-on-month. This contrast between "high interest but low purchases" not only reflects the continued spread of consumer wait-and-see sentiment but also indicates that the industry's current approach to coping with consumption upgrades remains passive. There is still a long way to go for industry transformation, upgrading, and structural reform. The "Manager Confidence Index," a leading indicator, saw the largest decline compared to the previous month, dropping by 44.32 points. This reflects the disappointment of market managers with the promotional results in May and the lowered short-term expectations for the future of the building materials and home furnishings market due to the real estate market conditions in 2017.

According to the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for China's manufacturing sector in May, released by the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the PMI stood at 51.2%, unchanged from the previous month and remaining above the critical threshold. This indicates that the current Chinese economic situation maintains an overall stable development trend. The convergence of the overall BHI index and the PMI suggests that the BHI has become a relatively sensitive index among China's economic indicators. The "internal conflict" among the BHI sub-indices reflects the unique characteristics and issues in the industry's development. Therefore, it is recommended that building materials and home furnishings enterprises should both recognize the environment and approach it rationally, while also focusing on the essence. They should provide consumers with products and services that not only meet their needs but also lead demand, driving industry transformation and upgrading through innovation, and steering the industry towards a healthier and more sustainable direction. (Source: China Building Materials Circulation Association)